Here’s how MS NOW will project control of the U.S. House: MS NOW is making its own projection of which party will win control of the U.S. House in the 2026 midterm elections. It will do so by estimating a minimum number of House seats, or “floor,” Democrats and Republicans will reach after all 435 House races have been called.
MS NOW will project a winner of the House majority after one party reaches at least 218 seats — the majority threshold. The numbers for either party will continue ticking up as more data trickles in.
Why are we doing this? We are seeking to close the gap between what MS NOW knows and what you — our audience — hear, see and read. Behind the scenes, our election experts will determine each party’s “floor” well before The Associated Press — our election data provider — projects the outcome of every individual House contest.
Why are we doing this? We are seeking to close the gap between what MS NOW knows and what you — our audience — hear, see and read.
To do so, our team will analyze trends on election night to estimate how different types of House districts across the country are breaking. Our goal is transparency, both in the numbers we report and the methodology we use to produce them. We want you to have the same information as we do in real time.
So here’s how the MS NOW House estimate will work.
Our estimate will rely on two major trends that emerge once polls start closing and we begin seeing the actual vote count trickle in.
The first trend is the swing from the last election: that is, the percentage-point shift in the two-party vote margin from the 2024 presidential results. This is a good baseline, not only because we’re comparing the current results to the most recent major election, but also because that difference is something we can calculate in every single House district, including those that were recently redrawn.
Take North Carolina’s 1st Congressional District, for instance, which was redrawn such that President Donald Trump would have carried it by 12 percentage points in 2024. If we hypothetically saw Republican Laurie Buckhout beating… https://www.ms.now/news/ms-now-u-s-house-majority-estimate