Florida Republican Byron Donalds has everything in his favor — except history: On paper, Florida looks like the perfect place for Rep. Byron Donalds to make history as the country’s first elected Black Republican governor.
Republicans have won every Florida governor’s race this century. President Donald Trump carried the state three times. Gov. Ron DeSantis won re-election by nearly 20 points. Republicans now hold a voter registration advantage of roughly 1.5 million.
Donalds, meanwhile, has nearly everything he’d seem to need: a national profile, formidable fundraising operation and close ties to the sitting president.
I’m still not convinced he’ll win.
Republicans have proved willing to nominate Black candidates for governor. But they haven’t yet found a candidate who can overcome the racial resistance some voters bring to the ballot box and assemble the general election coalition required to win.
Republicans have proved that they are willing to nominate Black candidates for governor. But they haven’t yet found a Black gubernatorial candidate who can defy political gravity, overcome the racial resistance some voters bring to the ballot box and assemble the general election coalition required to win.
Despite all the advantages listed for Donalds mentioned above, last week, Decision Desk HQ moved the governor’s race to a toss-up, the third forecaster in recent days to shift it toward Democrat David Jolly. A recent St. Pete Polls survey showed a statistical tie.
We’ve seen this movie before, or at least the start of it: Ken Blackwell in Ohio and Lynn Swann in Pennsylvania in 2006; Daniel Cameron in Kentucky in 2023; Mark Robinson in North Carolina in 2024; and Winsome Earle-Sears in Virginia in 2025. Each of those Black candidates was held up by the GOP as proof that the party is new and more diverse. Each of them lost.
The reasons varied. Cameron ran against a popular incumbent governor, Andy Beshear. Robinson was so extreme and scandal-prone he lost in a year Trump carried North Carolina. Others ran into hostile political environments. That’s why Blackwell’s loss… https://www.ms.now/opinion/byron-donalds-black-republican-governor-florida