Here’s what caused a cascade of surrender in Afghanistan. The swift collapse of the Afghan military in recent days caught many in the U.S. by surprise, including the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.In the months after President Joe Biden’s April 2021 announcement of the troop withdrawal, intelligence reports warned that the Afghan military might not fight on its own, opening the way for a Taliban takeover after U.S. forces withdrew.Yet few expected that the Taliban would succeed so quickly.On Aug. 10, a U.S. intelligence assessment had predicted a Taliban takeover within 90 days. It took just five.My research into what game theorists and academics call “commitment problems” identifies the problem, and it’s not one that most experts are talking about, like poor planning or corruption. The patterns of the Afghan military’s collapse indicate it was the collective result of individual soldiers making rational decisions about their own situations and… https://ift.tt/3AVJOWs

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